Oct. 14, 2025

World of Payne EP3: Shutdown, Data, and the Fed: America’s Three Fronts

World of Payne EP3: Shutdown, Data, and the Fed: America’s Three Fronts
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Washington is locked in a shutdown, America’s data pipeline is frozen, and the Federal Reserve is cutting rates while flying blind. In this 90-minute World of Payne deep dive, Tanner Payne breaks down three fronts of the same national crisis: a political shutdown costing billions, a CPI delay that blinds markets and seniors alike, and a Federal Reserve trying to steer through the fog. Hear both liberal and conservative takes, historical context, and what it all means for your paycheck, your savings, and the nation’s credibility. Sponsored by ValorBuilt Apparel — American grit, faith, and community stitched into every tee.

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WEBVTT

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Hello everyone to welcome back to the World of Pain podcast.

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I'm your host, and today we're talking about the three

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fronts right now that are shaping America's economy. Washington's shut down,

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the data blackout that's distorting how we measure inflation, and

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then the federal reserves balancing act of flying blind because

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between caution and collapse, they're all connected. Because when the

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government stops, data stops, and when the data stops, the

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FED begins to fly like a bat blind. We're going

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to unpack what's really happening, how both sides are spinning it,

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and what it means for your paycheck, your business, and

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your future. So buckle in. This is episode three titled

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shut Down, Data and the Fed. America's three fronts starts.

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Now here's where we stand. Let me set the stage.

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The federal government officially shut down for midnight in October first,

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twenty twenty five, the first day of the new fiscal year.

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Because the United States of America do not run their

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fiscal year with the calendar year, they run their fiscal

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year from October first to September thirtieth. Because Congress failed

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to pass even a temporary funding bill, both chambers tried,

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both failed, and now two weeks later we're feeling the consequences.

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I am going to post this at just after two

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weeks because at shutdown on midnight, I will finish recording

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this probably at exactly two weeks since shutdown. It's visible

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in empty museums, quiet offices. The Smithsodia Museums in the

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National Zoo locked their gates on October twelfth and thirteenth,

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and furlough notices have hit nearly a million federal workers.

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The White House Budget Office says the shutdown has cost

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the US economy between seven and fifteen billion every week.

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That's not imaginary money. It's miss paychecks, delayed contracts, frozen loans.

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Because you've got to remember the SBA is included in that,

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so small businesses aren't getting their loans or their grants

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that they that they need, some may need to survive,

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and nervous investors. But this shutdown is also different. Some

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agencies aren't just pausing, they're cutting. Over four thousand federal

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employees have already been terminated rather than for a load,

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something we haven't seen in modern shutdowns. Politically, this has

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become a trench. Our Republicans say the shutdown, say they're

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using the shutdown to force fiscal discipline and stop what

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they call blank check government. Democrats argue this is an

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economic sabotage, self inflicted wound that punishes workers to score

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political points. So tonight we're going to pull back the curtain.

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Who's actually responsible, what's really at stake, and how both

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sides are framing the same crisis very differently. Just to

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give you guys some context, a little bit of a timeline.

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Government officially shuts down on October first. No continuing resolution

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was what's passed. October eight through tenth eight failed Senate

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vote to reopen the government. October twelfth and thirteenth, Smithsonian

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and National Zoo closed their doors, with the symbolic impact

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in DC and National news. By October fourteenth, forty one

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hundred and eight federal employees laid off, not fur load.

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The economic impact is seven to fifteen billion per week.

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The Conservatives look at this as federal leverage, as fiscal leverage,

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using shutdown pressure to force talks on deficits, entitlement reform,

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and border funding. Selective pain does not equal collapse. Critics

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say closures are performative many essential services because stay open

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if priorities were managed. And the message is is short

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term pain for long term discipline, which I have to

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agree with to an extent. You can't sit here and

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just continue to run this government on a blank check

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where we're just gonna allow more and more debt to

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pile up. Our debt payments is one of the top

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line items on our budget. We are paying way too

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much for debt interest. We are paying way too much

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to try to pay down the principles of these debts.

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We are setting up our future generations for failure. This

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country is gonna crumble if we continue to just sit

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here and borrow, borrow, borrow. The government does. The actual

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real world does not run on blank checks. That check

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will be cashed at some point in time, and it's

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going to be a check that we can't cash. The

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liberal perspective is the government is a service, not a pawn.

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Shutdowns waste money via back pay and lost output. Real

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people suffer, Federal workers go unpaid, Programs for children and

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seniors pause, and the messages fiscal negotiation should happen through

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budget committees, not hostage situations. It's really funny that they

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say that, though, because they're the ones that are holding

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this hostage show as a clean resolution on the table

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that they could have passed just to continue to keep

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the government open while they continued the discussions. But they didn't.

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They chose to shut down the government to allow all

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these people to military, these government workers who are furloughed,

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the government workers who were laid off, They allowed for

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all this to happen. You can't sit here and tell

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me that pushing through a bill S two eight eight two,

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which was the one that they were trying to pass

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back a week ago, was packed full of bs. I

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covered it in a previous in the previous episode, episode two.

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I believe it was uh it was called. It was

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called S two eight eight two. It was about the

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Continuing Resolution and what the Democrats wanted in their bill.

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It was full of a bunch of inflammatory spending. And

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now the new Continuing Resolution is even worse. It's got

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more the more of the flamboyant burning spending that we

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cannot continue to do. The economic impact is nine hundred

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k fur load. Seven hundred thousand are working unpaid, with

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a total of one point six million affected. The NFIP

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suspension means thirty six hundred plus home closings are at

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risk daily, and that equals one point five billion in

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loss transactions. The ripple effect is local businesses in your

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national parks, museums, bases. They lose tourism and contract dollars.

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But that's not the only thing that they lose. They

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lose out on if they applied for an SBA grant,

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if they applied for grants through the USDA or any

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other any other grant giving agency that gives to small businesses,

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they're missing out on those and they might actually have

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prepaid contractors for work and now they're waiting for those

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grants to come through. So not only is the business

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missing out on that money, but the contractor that they

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hired to do the work to expand is now missing

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out on that money. It's a ripple effect that goes

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further than just the front line. The longest shutdown in

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history was in twenty eighteen twenty nineteen one. Again the

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Democrats held out to be able to get some flammatory

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spending pushed through their bills, and it costs roughly eleven

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billion dollars according to the Congressional Budget Office report, and

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this one is already rivaling that in just the two

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week loss that we've had the problem. The problems with

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the government shutdown go way further than just the amount

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of money that they that we lose. We It affects everything.

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It even affects your retirement accounts because the problem is

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is agencies like the BLS, the the Labor Board and

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stuff like that. In the census, they pause releases and

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it causes the investors to loose in the FED, to

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lose key signals. It repeated shutdowns also a road the

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international confidence in the US governance. Treasury yields can rise

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even without FED action. And the big thing with this

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too is is I just saw something the other the

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other day talking about this exact thing. Treasury yields are

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on the rise because people are looking at this shutdown.

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And we even tried to sell more in international bond markets,

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more debt because we had to pile more debt on

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for this to be able to continue spending at the

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government the way that the government does, and there was

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we struggled a little bit to sell the debt. Usually

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we don't because we're looked at as a pretty safe investment.

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And you can sit here and you can say there's

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other factors that go into that, whether it's the tariffs

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or anything like that. But if you have a government

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that shuts down for two weeks because you've got one

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side holding out when they could have continued and just

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made their payments through a clean continuing resolution that was

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that's been on the table and was on the table,

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it really changes the way you look at stuff you

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Michigan University of Michigan index often drops five to ten

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points during shutdowns. That's the consumer sentiment Consumer Sentiment Index,

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which means that people just aren't spending as much, they're

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not doing as much, they're more worried about what the

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further side effects of the of the government shutdown is

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going to be. I do want to I we're we're

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kind of through talking about the government shutdown, and I've

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covered I've covered this in depth through the S two

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eight eight two podcast. I covered it a little bit

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in the first podcast that I did, and I just

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kind of if you haven't seen those episodes, really dive

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deep if you're gonna pick one or the other, dive

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deeper into the episode two that covers S two eight

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eight two. But I want to ask you, guys, who

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do you guys blame for this shutdown? If you guys

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are on Spotify or YouTube. On Spotify, you can leave

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a comment on the episode. On YouTube, you can do

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the same thing. If you guys are listening on spreaker

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listen uh, you can leave comments on there as well.

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But just let me know what do you guys who

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do you guys blame for the shutdown? And then also

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should shutdowns be illegal as a negotiation tool or are

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they the only way to get spending under control? Let

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me know that the comments, but also through that, do

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you believe that we stop paying federal workers, we stop

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paying the military, but you know who still gets paid Congress?

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Do you believe? And please, if you're not going to

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comment on the other thing, please comment. Do you believe

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whether these people should still get paid? Do you think

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these people should be able to continue to collect their

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paycheck when they're forcing others to live without theirs? Because

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the truth is, this isn't about numbers on a spreadsheet.

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It's about trust and leadership, and that trust is a

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row on both sides, whether you're a Republican or a Democrat.

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The leadership is eroding on both sides, and the faith

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in that leadership is eroding. Before we start the start

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the next segment, I need to talk about our sponsor

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now back to the show. So that's kind of the

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political battle front, a shutdown costing billions and pushing Americans

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to the edge while DC dug its heels in. But

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the economic pain isn't just from lost paychecks. It's from

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lost information. When the government shuts down, the data stops flowing.

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And when the data stops flowing the flood the FED

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flies blind. And that's next the CPI delay in America's

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data blackout. When Washington shuts down, the nation doesn't just

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stop paying workers, it stops producing the numbers that drive

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the entire economy. The CPI index, or the Consumer Price

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Index as the acronym actually is, is the heartbeat America's

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data machine. It tracks what we pay for gas, rent, groceries,

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and medical bills. It shapes sec social Security COLA, or

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cost of living adjustments. It also dictates how much bond

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markets charge and interest, and determines how far paychecks really go. Normally,

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CPI arrives like clockwork on the second Wednesday of each month,

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but this year, with a shutdown freezing most of the

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Bureau of Land of Labor Statistics, September twenty five, CPI

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was pushed back to Friday, October twenty fourth, at eight

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thirty am Eastern Time. That's the first time in decades

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BOLS has had to reschedule an inflation report midyear. The

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reason many of the survey teams that gather price data

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were furloughed. Without field staff calling retailers or recording shelf prices,

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the numbers literally don't exist, and that matters because without

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CPI we can't calculate how much seniors social Security checks

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rise next January. The Treasury can adjust inflation protected bonds

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private contracts that rely on CPI clauses. Everything from rent

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escalators to labor union wage formulas all stall out. This

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is the hidden cost of a government shutdown, not just

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lost services, but lost truth. When data disappears, confidence disappears,

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and every political faction starts telling its own story. I

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just want to touch on on one thing within this.

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How is it that we're going to know what we're

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spending in social security? How are we going to know

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what to budget, what government spending on entitlement programs is

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going to be without a very important index number such

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as the CPI index. It also tells the Fed what

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they can set in what the inflation rate is, because

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that's how they make decisions whether a rate cut is

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necessary or to stay the same, or even if a

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rate rise is necessary. This is I haven't seen this

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politicized or push through enough, but it's because it's kind

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of fresh that they have actually really set a date

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to the release. But at some point in time, both

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parties need to come to the table. Both parties need

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to decide to give and take on spending. I know

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the one thing that the Democrats really want, the healthcare

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for illegals and stuff like that, which the way they

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say healthcare for illegals. It's not exactly specifically health care

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for legals. It's it's the classifications of what an eligible

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alien technically is. And that's discussed in episode two as

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two to eight to the bill where the Continuing Resolution

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bill that they're trying that the Democrats are trying to

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push through the House and well through the Senate because

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it's the Senate bill. The basics of what the CPI

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actually is is it's a weighted basket of goods and services.

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It's technically eighty thousand roughly eighty thousand items and roughly

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twenty three thousand retail in housing samples. The core CPI

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is CPI minus food and energy because food and energy

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can and can fluctuate so much, and it's watched by

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the FED. The uses like I kind of touched on

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a little bit earlier are the cost of living adjustment

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for roughly seventy million Social Security recipients. It also is

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the indexing of tax brackets for tips and federal benefits.

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It also sets the cost of living and inflationary statistics

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for private contracts, leases, pensions, wages. The historical precedent is

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that during the nineteen ninety five ninety six, which is

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almost two decades ago. BLS missed the release for roughly

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three weeks, and the bond market volatility rose nearly fifteen percent.

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That is crazy. Bond markets are supposed to be the

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safest markets, some of the safest markets in investing, besides

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junk bonds and some corporate bonds, some lower cap corporate bonds,

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but they're supposed to be the safest markets for municipality

263
00:20:01.200 --> 00:20:07.400
and government bonds. It's when you when you get a

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volatility rise of fifteen percent, that's just crazy. The BLS

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confirmed the delay in an internal memo on October eleventh,

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twenty twenty five, with like I said, that's why it

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hasn't been weaponized as much as you would think because

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it as of recording, that was only three days ago,

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which would have been Saturday. So it's not wasn't even

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really it wasn't even a business day, citing continuity continuity

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of national benefit calculations. How how the sources that I

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have found are phrasing this on the conservative side versus

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the liberal side is Conservatives are saying it's caution first,

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no data equals no decision. The Fed shouldn't not cut

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rates or extend programs on bad info skepticism. Political administrations

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have incentives to massage inflation numbers. Transparency is key, and

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then that of course, the talking line is without honest data,

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you can't have honest policy, which is really funny because

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I was not a fan of firing the person in

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charge of doing doing the information that was under the

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Biden administration. But then I did the digging and found

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out under the Biden administration the person who was doing

283
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the jobs numbers was actually inflating the job jobs numbers

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for on average a few weeks. It was usually between

285
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two and three weeks. So that way it helped on

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00:21:54.359 --> 00:21:56.680
the campaign trail. And then all of a sudden, okay,

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we're gonna we're gonna redact the job numbers, and really

288
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they would be fractions of a percent of what they

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really were. And a lot of times those job numbers,

290
00:22:08.079 --> 00:22:11.079
the jobs that were created were created in government jobs,

291
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so it just increased government spending. The policy wishes is

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00:22:17.240 --> 00:22:26.799
privatize or firewall data collection from political funding battles the

293
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liberal perspective. Transparency over blackout publishing CPI even late, keeps

294
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markets and benefits moving. The government capacity is cuts plus

295
00:22:37.240 --> 00:22:43.599
fur Thos weaken agency's ability to serve the public. Then,

296
00:22:43.640 --> 00:22:45.960
of course the talking line is a data is public good,

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not a partisian weapon partisan weapon. The policy wish is

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automatic funding for key statistics to prevent manipulation by shutdowns. Well,

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here's the problem. You could have had your data, could

300
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have had everything that we needed to continue the government

301
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if you guys would just pass a continuing CR, a

302
00:23:12.519 --> 00:23:15.359
clean continuing CR. Not anything that's trying to push any

303
00:23:15.359 --> 00:23:19.519
policy decisions, Not anything that's trying to push back on

304
00:23:19.559 --> 00:23:21.799
a bill that was passed three months prior that you

305
00:23:21.799 --> 00:23:24.799
could have pushed on at that time instead of now

306
00:23:29.319 --> 00:23:34.599
passing something like this. Should not be done under pretense

307
00:23:36.200 --> 00:23:40.000
of keeping the government open. And as two to eight two,

308
00:23:41.200 --> 00:23:45.160
they were trying to push through policy decisions and change

309
00:23:45.240 --> 00:23:50.960
laws from forty to fifty years ago, all under the

310
00:23:51.039 --> 00:23:55.920
guys of keep the government open or reopening the government

311
00:23:57.440 --> 00:24:01.160
those types of decisions. Any any bill that changes previous

312
00:24:03.240 --> 00:24:06.759
bills of previous law, like the wording of previous laws,

313
00:24:08.039 --> 00:24:10.519
especially one that you guys had voted on three months prior,

314
00:24:10.559 --> 00:24:15.160
should not be done in a time where people's lives

315
00:24:15.200 --> 00:24:19.799
depend on it. It should be done. When the government

316
00:24:19.920 --> 00:24:26.559
is open, the funding is granted and living can continue.

317
00:24:26.720 --> 00:24:32.079
The economic and marketing implications the immediate so with the

318
00:24:32.079 --> 00:24:34.880
immediate effect of a delay on the markets is the

319
00:24:34.920 --> 00:24:40.119
investors can't hedge inflation properly and it causes more volatility.

320
00:24:40.559 --> 00:24:43.119
But the broader risk is is mispricing of tips and

321
00:24:43.160 --> 00:24:49.119
FED funds futures, so security. The immediate effect is the

322
00:24:49.119 --> 00:24:53.400
cost of living announcement is postponed. Older Americans become uncertain

323
00:24:53.480 --> 00:24:56.759
of what their cost of living adjustment will be. The

324
00:24:56.759 --> 00:25:02.240
broader risk is political backlash from seniors. Then, of course

325
00:25:02.279 --> 00:25:05.519
you've got the wages and contracts. The immediate effect is

326
00:25:05.599 --> 00:25:14.000
uniony negotiation. Union negotiations usually stall, and then the broader

327
00:25:14.079 --> 00:25:17.319
risk is to catch up inflation clauses later on cause

328
00:25:17.400 --> 00:25:22.319
wage shocks and also causes some shocks to some budgets

329
00:25:22.359 --> 00:25:28.680
on some projects. The immediate effect of the delay on

330
00:25:28.799 --> 00:25:34.039
FED policy is Powell's data dependent stance is undermined. The

331
00:25:34.079 --> 00:25:38.640
broader risk is its potential policy errors, which we'll talk

332
00:25:38.680 --> 00:25:45.920
about in section three of this podcast, because a deep

333
00:25:46.000 --> 00:25:50.200
dive into this is how the data distortion spreads is.

334
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If the CPI comes in hot with a greater than

335
00:25:56.119 --> 00:26:00.839
point three percent. The market odds of November December rate

336
00:26:00.880 --> 00:26:08.000
cut drop to greater than forty percent. They drop greater

337
00:26:08.039 --> 00:26:12.799
than forty percent. If CPI comes in cool less than

338
00:26:13.440 --> 00:26:18.160
a point two percent, Bond yields could sink ten to

339
00:26:18.240 --> 00:26:26.000
fifteen percent basis ten to fifteen basis points, which is

340
00:26:26.039 --> 00:26:28.920
not close to ten to fifteen percent, and then the

341
00:26:28.960 --> 00:26:34.799
equities rally volatility spikes. During the twenty thirteen shutdown, ten

342
00:26:34.920 --> 00:26:39.599
year yields moved twenty five basis points in a week

343
00:26:39.960 --> 00:26:45.400
on rumors alone. Data credibility. Bloomberg Economics warns that the

344
00:26:45.440 --> 00:26:48.599
shutdown may erode the quality of the inflation data for months.

345
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The left narrative is, this delay proves how dangerous the

346
00:26:54.960 --> 00:27:01.759
shutdown is. It literally threatens seniors checks a continuing cr

347
00:27:01.920 --> 00:27:08.319
that is clean, not filled with policy decisions. The rights

348
00:27:08.359 --> 00:27:12.839
narrative the delay proves how fragile and politicized or bureaucracy

349
00:27:12.880 --> 00:27:20.640
has become. Data should never depend on Congress's mood. Very true.

350
00:27:21.200 --> 00:27:24.200
The public perception is both parties blame each other. Recent

351
00:27:24.599 --> 00:27:30.680
IPSOS polls show forty two percent blame Republicans and thirty

352
00:27:30.759 --> 00:27:42.599
nine percent blame Democrats. Nineteen percent, both I'm unsure of

353
00:27:43.519 --> 00:27:47.519
I'm not I'm not a fan of pulling like this

354
00:27:48.359 --> 00:27:54.720
because Republicans during this and I saw a statistic I

355
00:27:54.759 --> 00:27:58.279
can't remember where it was from off the top of

356
00:27:58.319 --> 00:28:07.119
my head, but they the Republicans receive higher negative media

357
00:28:07.160 --> 00:28:13.920
coverage right now. And it's just looking at this as

358
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a person who watches the media, who of course doing

359
00:28:17.559 --> 00:28:20.559
this podcast, I'm trying to collect all the information I

360
00:28:20.559 --> 00:28:23.559
can from both sides. So I'm not just watching Fox News,

361
00:28:24.680 --> 00:28:28.880
I'm watching CNN, I'm watching the View, I'm watching all

362
00:28:28.960 --> 00:28:34.400
these other news sources and mainstream, the legacy mainstream media

363
00:28:34.960 --> 00:28:39.559
covers Republicans in a worse light than they do the Democrats.

364
00:28:39.720 --> 00:28:43.160
When the Demo when, like Mike Johnson has said, a

365
00:28:43.240 --> 00:28:48.000
continued resolution, a clean one without policy decisions, without backdoor deals,

366
00:28:48.039 --> 00:28:53.319
without a bunch of bs added to it, was sent

367
00:28:53.400 --> 00:28:56.400
to the Senate to be able to pass, and they

368
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have not done anything with it now. I really, I

369
00:29:03.759 --> 00:29:05.400
really want you guys to think about this, and if

370
00:29:05.400 --> 00:29:07.400
you guys want to comment it or just think to yourself,

371
00:29:07.759 --> 00:29:09.920
do you guys trust the inflation numbers we get every

372
00:29:09.960 --> 00:29:12.839
month or do you think that they're massage for politics,

373
00:29:13.480 --> 00:29:17.680
whether it's under Trump's presidency or Biden's presidency or Obama's presidency.

374
00:29:17.880 --> 00:29:20.599
Do you guys actually trust those numbers or do you

375
00:29:20.599 --> 00:29:23.440
guys think that a lot of times they're massage to

376
00:29:23.519 --> 00:29:31.279
make it look better. Should critical economic data be protected

377
00:29:31.279 --> 00:29:34.200
from shutdown? It's the same way the military is yes

378
00:29:34.319 --> 00:29:40.319
or no. And by me asking that, it's not saying

379
00:29:40.920 --> 00:29:43.839
that they're protected with their paychecks or anything like that,

380
00:29:43.880 --> 00:29:50.720
because they're not. It's bs. But by what I'm saying

381
00:29:50.799 --> 00:29:55.759
is that they continue to operate. No, I want you

382
00:29:55.759 --> 00:30:01.799
guys to think if you rely on Social Security or

383
00:30:01.839 --> 00:30:05.759
a cost of living adjustment linked pension or even a

384
00:30:05.799 --> 00:30:13.279
cost of living linked adjustment to your wages. I mean

385
00:30:13.440 --> 00:30:16.880
there's like I said earlier, there's there is some union

386
00:30:16.880 --> 00:30:20.279
contracts that are that might be coming. Do that rely

387
00:30:20.440 --> 00:30:25.920
on a cost of living adjustment clause? This is your

388
00:30:26.160 --> 00:30:33.119
wallet on the line. Remember that come election season. As

389
00:30:33.160 --> 00:30:38.160
a historical perspective, the nineteen seventies stagflation delays in price

390
00:30:38.240 --> 00:30:42.799
data caused FED policy to whiplash, and who knows if

391
00:30:42.799 --> 00:30:45.480
that if some of that we got some trickle down

392
00:30:45.599 --> 00:30:52.279
during the eighties twenty thirteen shut down, BLS closed no

393
00:30:52.559 --> 00:30:55.680
September employment report, and it caused the market to panic.

394
00:30:57.279 --> 00:31:01.599
When data vanishes, remembor becomes reality, and Wall Street writes

395
00:31:01.640 --> 00:31:06.599
its own story. It may not actually be the true reality,

396
00:31:06.680 --> 00:31:13.640
but it becomes a reality. So think about the chain

397
00:31:13.680 --> 00:31:19.799
reaction we just described. Congress stops funding, BLS stops measuring,

398
00:31:20.480 --> 00:31:24.640
the Fed loses its compass, and yet monetary policy has

399
00:31:24.720 --> 00:31:29.680
to keep on moving because the bill itself is voting

400
00:31:29.720 --> 00:31:36.839
on monetary and fiscal policy. That's our next front. The

401
00:31:36.880 --> 00:31:41.200
Federal Reserve's tightrope block cutting rates into a data blackout

402
00:31:42.319 --> 00:31:46.200
while politicians on both sides try to claim credit or

403
00:31:46.240 --> 00:31:51.920
assign blame. Because now we've reached the third front, the

404
00:31:51.920 --> 00:31:57.680
Federal Reserves Balancing Act Chair Jerome Powell and Governor Michelle

405
00:31:57.720 --> 00:32:01.079
Bowman are standing in the middle of a storm, and

406
00:32:01.119 --> 00:32:06.079
at this point it's a damn hurricane. A government shut

407
00:32:06.079 --> 00:32:09.720
down is starving them with data, an inflation gauge stuck

408
00:32:09.759 --> 00:32:12.640
in neutral, and politicians for both parties tugging at the

409
00:32:12.640 --> 00:32:17.039
opposite sleeves. In late September, the Fed cut its rate,

410
00:32:17.319 --> 00:32:22.359
its benchmark rate by a quarter point, landing at four

411
00:32:22.400 --> 00:32:29.359
percent to four point twenty five percent, the first trim

412
00:32:29.400 --> 00:32:33.039
in almost a year, and this week Bowman said she

413
00:32:33.119 --> 00:32:38.480
expects two more cuts before year end, assuming inflation keeps

414
00:32:38.480 --> 00:32:44.240
cooling and the labor market keeps softening. Powell echoed that tone.

415
00:32:44.599 --> 00:32:49.839
The Central Bank should remain data dependent, but he also

416
00:32:49.920 --> 00:32:53.680
quote admitted quote our instruments are only as good as

417
00:32:53.680 --> 00:32:57.359
our information. That's the dilemma. The Fed must act in

418
00:32:57.400 --> 00:32:59.960
real time while the government's own shutdown hides the game.

419
00:33:00.720 --> 00:33:03.839
To Wall Street, that sounds like hope for cheaper money.

420
00:33:04.039 --> 00:33:07.440
To Main Street, that sounds like gambling with the economy's

421
00:33:07.480 --> 00:33:14.400
steering wheel. They're talking maybe projected coat cuts in late

422
00:33:14.440 --> 00:33:20.079
October or mid in mid December. They're also hoping that

423
00:33:20.160 --> 00:33:23.160
the headline is two point sixty year over year in

424
00:33:23.200 --> 00:33:27.480
August with a core percent of with a core of

425
00:33:27.519 --> 00:33:30.839
three point zero percent. The unemployment right now is four

426
00:33:30.880 --> 00:33:39.079
point two percent. Although September is delayed, the balance sheet

427
00:33:39.759 --> 00:33:42.079
for the Fed. FED is still rolling off of twenty

428
00:33:42.119 --> 00:33:49.759
five billion in treasuries plus fifteen billion and nbs per month.

429
00:33:55.119 --> 00:33:59.920
Shutdowns delay the debt ceiling planning and raise premium yealds.

430
00:34:02.119 --> 00:34:05.640
When you're talking about this, the conservative side says stay hawkish.

431
00:34:06.559 --> 00:34:11.159
Cutting with inflation still above two percent risks repeating the

432
00:34:11.239 --> 00:34:18.840
nineteen seventies mistake structural inflation, energy policy, tariffs, federal spending

433
00:34:19.360 --> 00:34:24.159
keeps prices high. They want to Fed to stay credible,

434
00:34:24.719 --> 00:34:30.480
holding the line until the core service is cool. The

435
00:34:30.480 --> 00:34:33.480
big sound bite is is don't bailout Washington's over spending

436
00:34:34.000 --> 00:34:39.280
with easy money. The liberal perspective is jobs and equity.

437
00:34:39.639 --> 00:34:44.079
Higher rates hurt borrowers, renters, and first time home buyers.

438
00:34:44.480 --> 00:34:47.480
The global risk is gear up in Asia is slowing

439
00:34:47.760 --> 00:34:53.239
if the Fed stays tight, US exports fall mild easing

440
00:34:53.320 --> 00:34:59.199
is insurance not bailout sound bite? Heah, of course, keep

441
00:34:59.239 --> 00:35:03.280
people working and let inflation normalize organically. Of course, you

442
00:35:03.360 --> 00:35:06.199
want people to keep working. God to be able to

443
00:35:06.239 --> 00:35:11.840
pay them, pay them bills and pay taxes. Somehow we're

444
00:35:11.840 --> 00:35:16.960
gonna even with the big with the big rate cuts.

445
00:35:16.960 --> 00:35:20.920
We've seen a drop this week in the S and

446
00:35:20.960 --> 00:35:24.639
P five hundred. We've seen a twelve a negative twelve

447
00:35:24.719 --> 00:35:28.559
basis points cut in the tenure Treasury. We've seen gold

448
00:35:28.639 --> 00:35:31.039
go up, which is not a good sign because gold

449
00:35:31.079 --> 00:35:36.280
goes up only when uncertainty is high. The dollar index

450
00:35:36.400 --> 00:35:44.079
is down zero point four percent, the data gap risk

451
00:35:44.360 --> 00:35:51.440
if CPI data arrive late and are noisy, which is

452
00:35:51.559 --> 00:35:57.719
possible though the FED is essentially steering blind politics press

453
00:35:57.760 --> 00:36:03.039
on Congressial repel, but consecues Paull of helping the White

454
00:36:03.039 --> 00:36:08.039
House avoid session before twenty twenty six. Progressives argue that

455
00:36:08.079 --> 00:36:12.480
the FED is too slow to support workers. Historical echo

456
00:36:12.719 --> 00:36:15.360
is that they compare the compared to the nineteen ninety

457
00:36:15.400 --> 00:36:20.119
five shutdown Green span Ara pause. FED held rates flat

458
00:36:20.199 --> 00:36:23.079
for data reliability, which is what they need to do.

459
00:36:23.159 --> 00:36:27.440
You can't just you can't base a decision this important

460
00:36:27.719 --> 00:36:30.360
which I would love a rate cut. I will not

461
00:36:30.480 --> 00:36:32.119
lie to you. I would love a rate cut to

462
00:36:32.159 --> 00:36:35.000
be able to get get into some prime rate mortgages

463
00:36:35.119 --> 00:36:37.360
or something, to be able to get down get the

464
00:36:37.400 --> 00:36:39.360
mortgage rates down there so we can get in. I

465
00:36:39.400 --> 00:36:44.639
can get into a nice house. But if it means

466
00:36:44.679 --> 00:36:50.039
that my dollar is worth ten times less, what's the

467
00:36:50.079 --> 00:36:54.239
point because then I'm getting into a house it's costing me.

468
00:36:54.519 --> 00:36:57.920
If the dollar loses ten percent, I'm getting into a

469
00:36:57.920 --> 00:37:03.239
house that's not costing me ten percent more. Who do

470
00:37:03.280 --> 00:37:06.159
you think the FED should serve? Wall Street or Main Street?

471
00:37:06.599 --> 00:37:08.800
I want you guys to I really want to know

472
00:37:08.840 --> 00:37:12.280
what your opinion on no one is should should they

473
00:37:12.880 --> 00:37:16.800
serve Wall Street? Or should they serve you or I?

474
00:37:17.159 --> 00:37:21.960
Who will go to work every day, who push and

475
00:37:22.960 --> 00:37:30.440
have to be the ones that really pay. I mean

476
00:37:33.719 --> 00:37:35.000
the were the ones that are gonna be the ones

477
00:37:35.000 --> 00:37:38.000
that are paying for it because the people who are

478
00:37:38.039 --> 00:37:42.639
on Wall Street can afford can afford higher costs. They

479
00:37:42.639 --> 00:37:47.280
couldn't they could really honestly afford the higher interest. But

480
00:37:49.719 --> 00:37:52.880
who do you think they should serve? You or I?

481
00:37:53.360 --> 00:37:58.280
Or Wall Street? If you ran the FED right now,

482
00:37:58.320 --> 00:38:02.360
would you cut, hold or hike? I'll read your takes

483
00:38:02.400 --> 00:38:08.639
in the next episode. Just make sure that you drop

484
00:38:08.639 --> 00:38:13.000
a comment and I will pick five comments for my

485
00:38:13.039 --> 00:38:17.159
next episode, but which will probably be out Friday or Saturday.

486
00:38:18.159 --> 00:38:20.639
Does anyone still believe that the FED is independent? Or

487
00:38:20.679 --> 00:38:29.559
does monetary policy become just another political weapon? The soft

488
00:38:29.639 --> 00:38:36.599
landing is that inflation slides below three percent, jobs hold study,

489
00:38:37.199 --> 00:38:42.559
the FED eases slowly in the market's rally, the data trap,

490
00:38:43.079 --> 00:38:49.239
faulty stats mislead, the FED overshoot, the FED overshoots cuts,

491
00:38:49.920 --> 00:38:53.280
and then we just reinflate. In twenty twenty six and

492
00:38:53.320 --> 00:38:59.440
then our dollar is worth even less the shut Another

493
00:38:59.480 --> 00:39:05.360
option is the shutdown plus spending resumption drive bond supply,

494
00:39:06.000 --> 00:39:10.119
and then the rates stay high despite the cuts, which

495
00:39:10.119 --> 00:39:12.719
could happen as well because a lot of things are

496
00:39:12.760 --> 00:39:15.519
funded by bonds. And then, of course you got the

497
00:39:15.519 --> 00:39:19.559
political shock, which is the election cycle, pressure forces, premature easing,

498
00:39:19.960 --> 00:39:36.880
and credibility loss. Oh boy, Last, but not least, the shutdown,

499
00:39:37.920 --> 00:39:43.000
the data and the FED. Three fronts are the same

500
00:39:43.199 --> 00:39:49.599
or fight over control credibility in the future of American stability.

501
00:39:51.119 --> 00:39:55.719
One front is political chaos, another is a statistical silence.

502
00:39:56.760 --> 00:40:02.920
The third is monetary guesswork. Every decision made in DC

503
00:40:03.199 --> 00:40:07.920
ripples through savings accounts, your loan rates, and your retirement fund.

504
00:40:08.599 --> 00:40:11.440
The question is is how long can we keep playing

505
00:40:12.159 --> 00:40:19.119
with confidence before the world starts pricing our dysfunction. Remember,

506
00:40:19.679 --> 00:40:24.360
leadership isn't about control, It's about stewardship. From the capital

507
00:40:24.360 --> 00:40:28.800
to the FED to your own checkbook, the same rule applies.

508
00:40:29.400 --> 00:40:35.119
Manage what you measure, and measure what matters. I'm stander

509
00:40:35.159 --> 00:40:38.000
pain and this has been a world of pain. If

510
00:40:38.039 --> 00:40:42.039
you're watching on YouTube, hit subscribe. Fear listening on Spotify,

511
00:40:42.920 --> 00:40:47.320
hit follow fearar listening on speaker, hit follow. If you're

512
00:40:47.360 --> 00:40:52.360
listening on Apple podcasts, hit follow on Spotify. I'm going

513
00:40:52.400 --> 00:40:56.679
to put a poll up and you vote on it

514
00:40:56.719 --> 00:41:01.719
and tell me which front hurts America most right now, shutdowns,

515
00:41:02.440 --> 00:41:08.559
data blackouts, or FED policy. Until next time, stay sharp,

516
00:41:09.119 --> 00:41:13.840
stay grounded, and stay in the fight for truth. Have

517
00:41:13.880 --> 00:41:14.599
a good night, guys,